Forecasting: From Guesswork to Precision
Moving averages smooth noise; they don’t see structure. Modern retail forecasting decomposes demand into trend, seasonality, promotions, and exogenous factors (weather, pay-day cycles, religious holidays). With the right model, Easter shifts, school calendars, and cultural festivals become features, not surprises. The franchisor’s “we use moving averages” answer signalled that the future would keep arriving unannounced.